Jeff Siegel: Santa Anita Analysis/Workout Commentary | Saturday, June 18, 2022

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, Workout Commentary, and True Odds Calculations (“TOC”) identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The “TOC” quantifies the findings of a personal thoroughbred analytics program that contains in its database the results of every race contested at Santa Anita since 2004. More than 75 critical factors in the fields of class, distance, surface, age, and sex have created 227 algorithms that are highly specific to the race being handicapped. The result is a probability line that reflects each contender’s true odds based on a pure 100-point takeout.

The “TOC” applies its mathematical formula only to non-maiden races and displays a maximum of four runners considered the most likely contenders to win. Also listed is the specific algorithm’s sample size plus the top-rated horse’s win percentage and return on investment (ROI). It is suggested that the player utilize the program’s findings to compare each contender’s “true odds” with the morning line and/or actual wagering odds to identify potential overlays and underlays.

Also-eligible runners are not included in any of the calculations until verified as actual starters. When possible, adjustments to the “TOC” will be updated after late scratches.

For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B+
Single: 4-Flintmore

Forecast: Flintmore lost a toughie in a similar maiden-special-weight affair over this course and distance last month but earned a career top speed figure in the process and has worked extremely well since, so we’re expecting the P. D’Amato-trained gelding to finally break through and graduate in career start number six. The switch to U. Rispoli won’t hurt, so in a race that projects to have soft early splits the son of Flintshire should be on or near the lead throughout. At 2-1 on the morning line, he’s a win play and rolling exotic single.

Notable Workouts:

Kazawaki (May 8, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:02.1h TT). Grade: C+
Broke off a couple of lengths behind Henley’s Joy (5f, 1:02.3h TT) and was ridden through the lane to finish about a length back at the wire, not really impressive (‘Joy was breezing and waiting for workmate and was much best). Irish invader ran well in only outing in February but perhaps isn’t quite fit yet based on this drill (note: this workout took place in early May, gelding subsequently was sent to train at San Luis Rey Downs and recorded three workouts since).
View Workout Video

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RACE 2: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 6-Cinnamon Cat; 1-Spooky Lady

Forecast: This could be a stronger than par maiden special weight sprint for fillies and mares depending upon whether a pair of hot-shot first-timers run to their workouts. Cinnamon Cat gets a very slight edge on top because of her cozy outside draw, and while the daughter of Pioneerof the Nile may eventually prove best at a longer distance she should be good enough to be a major player in this six furlong main track sprint. The barn doesn’t have good stats with debut runners, but this filly has trained like she is plenty fit and ready. Spooky Lady drew the dreaded rail, but if she breaks cleanly the inside draw won’t be an issue. A daughter of Ghostzapper with a series of strong drills for a stable that has excellent stats with newcomers, she is the 2-1 morning line favorite, and it will be interesting to see if and how much she gets hammered. We’ll play it safe and include both in our rolling exotics.

Notable Workouts:

Spooky Lady (May 22, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.2h). Grade: B
May have been a tad best inside Fun to Dream (same time) while working from the half mile pole out to the seven-furlong pole, splits of :12.2, :24.1, :48.1 and 1:00.2, never really asked much in steady, even drill. Good-moving daughter of Ghostzapper acts like a decent type and seems fairly fit for S. McCarthy.
View Workout Video

Charlotte Harbor (June 11, Santa Anita, 4f, :46.4h). Grade: B-
In blinkers, urged hard through the lane to record fast time while even outside Salta (same time) for K. Desormeaux, final three furlongs in :11.1 and :35.1. Okay work, perhaps not as good as final time might indicate.
View Workout Video

Cinnamon Cat (May 28, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.4hg). Grade: B
Mostly in hand outside Wishing On a Star (same time) for M. McCarthy, splits of :24.2, :36.1, :48 flat and 1:00.3 on our watches, quite nice while able to go faster if turned loose. Moves like a decent sort, probably not a quick type but definitely has at least some quality.
View Workout Video

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RACE 3: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference): 2-Stone Silent; 5-Tom’s Regret; 1-E Z Pharis

Forecast : The first West Coast stakes race for juveniles marks the debut of the very quick and promising Stone Silent (TOC=5-1; ML=6-1), who may prove to be a good gamble at 6-1 on the morning line. The J. Sadler-trained filly previewed in a blazing 20 4/5 seconds at the OBS March Sale, after which she brought $410,000 through the ring, a ton of money for a daughter of Adios Charlie, whose stud fee is listed at $4,000. Locally, she has done everything asked while appearing to be a two-year-old with quality, so line let’s go with the fresh face while trying to beat Tom’s Regret (TOC=2-1; ML=6/5), the logical favorite seeking to extend her perfect streak to three. The J. Periban-trained daughter of Tom’s Tribute graduated by a pole in her debut here in April and then verified the performance by capturing the Kentucky Juvenile S. at Churchill Downs during Derby week. Back home with three solid works to tick her over, she will take some catching. E Z Pharis (TOC=5-1; ML=3-1) graduated with authority in late April from slightly off the pace, and if the leaders go too fast in the opening stages, she will have every chance to pick them up. The rail is no bargain but with clear sailing she should make some series noise late.
Notable Workouts:

Stone Silent (June 6, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.2hg). Grade: B+
Solo gate work for J. Sadler, never asked at any stage while earning splits of :23.4, :35.2, :47.3 and 1:00.2, quite nice for unraced juvenile filly. Cost $410,000 in the OBS March Sale after showing plenty of zip (:20 4/5 seconds) during the preview session. Have to think she’ll be tough to outrun in her debut.
View Workout Video

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RACE 4: Post: 2:33 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 4-Annie’s Song; 3-Fluent

Forecast: Annie’s Song (TOC=4/5; ML=8/5) drops into an expensive seller for the first time after coming up short when fourth in a first-level allowance turf sprint down the hill last month. She’s a fit on numbers and can be dangerous on the front end or from a stalking position. Additionally, the analytics love her. Fluent (TOC=7/2; ML=5/2) got burned up stalking a hot pace in a tougher spot in her most recent appearance but like our top selection should regain her best form in a race that projects to have a much softer pace flow. She earned a big figure when graduating over the flat course two runs back when she was able to establish a clear lead and similar tactics certainly will be employed today. These are the two we’ll be using in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Annie’s Song.

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RACE 5: Post: 3:06 PT Grade: C+
Use (in order of preference): 6-Beignet; 1-So Softly

Forecast: The form in her first two races looks awful, but this massive class drop from maiden special weight to bottom-rung maiden $20,000 could make a world of difference to Beignet, an Empire Maker filly who has worked a whole lot better than she’s run so far (see below). Perhaps against this group she’ll will have found her friends. So Softly is an eight-race maiden and not one to trust, but she has finished in the money in half of her starts and from the rail she might get loose on the lead and never look back. In a race that is probably best left alone, we’ll try to survive and advance using just two in rolling exotic play.
Notable Workouts:

Beignet (June 6, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00h). Grade: B-
Not bad for a maiden-claiming type, inside Squillions (same time) for P. Gallagher and staying even with that one while working from the half mile pole to the seven furlong pole, coaxed through the lane, splits of :23.1, :47.2 (to the wire) and 1:00 flat on our watches. Form in two maiden special weight starts is dreadful but against soft foes she should improve a bunch.
View Workout Video

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RACE 6: Post: 3:38 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 2-Havana Love; 6-Big Sweep; 3-Amy C

Forecast : This allowance optional claiming Hillside turf sprint for fillies and mares offers several chances and thus requires a spread in rolling exotic play. Havana Love (TOC=6-1; ML=3-1) ran a winning race in her local bow when second over the flat course and if she duplicates that effort down the hill she will be the one to beat. A quality performer in Italy prior to importation, the D. O’Neill-trained filly continues to impress in the morning, retains leading pilot J. Hernandez, and is listed as the co-second choice on the morning line at 3-1. Big Sweep (TOC=8/5; ML=5/2) finished a nose behind our top pick when third in that race in late May. She removes blinkers (love that angle), has excellent form over this tricky course and always has been genuine and consistent (in the frame in 12 of 13 career starts). With an ideal stalking style that will keep her free of trouble, the M. Glatt-trained daughter of Mr. Big is the one to fear most at 5/2 on the morning line. Amy C (TOC=5-1; ML=3-1) turns back to a sprint for the first time since beating maidens in France last year, and at this shorter trip she could produce a significant late kick. She is exiting three successive stakes races and surely will appreciate this easier competition.

Notable Workouts:

Havana Love (June 11, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.3hg). Grade: B
Went much faster than given and looked sharp as usual for D. O’Neill while besting Peanut Butter Cup (3f, :37hg, actually went in :35.2, decent move), splits of :23.4, :35.1, :47.1 and :59.3 before coasting to the wire in 1:14 flat on our watches. Has second level allowance conditions, prefers turf, and maintains her edge.
View Workout Video

Amy C (June 5, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.3h TT). Grade: B
Never really asked while outside Cathkin Peak (5f, 1:00.4h TT), breaking off more than a length behind and finishing a neck back at the wire to receive faster final time but actually appearing second best, splits of :23.4, :35.4, and 1:00.2 on our watches, useful drill for P. D’Amato. Was overmatched in Wilshire S.-G3 in her comeback, has conditions and probably should use them.
View Workout Video

Big Sweep (June 11, Santa Anita, 4f, :47.2h). Grade: B
Shadow roll but no blinkers, broke off several lengths behind City Rage (4f, :47.4h) while going easily to the top, then was asked pretty good through the lane (late changing leads) and couldn’t catch workmate, splits of :12.1, :24.2 and :47.2 on our watches. Decent work for M. Glatt, maintains her form.
View Workout Video

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RACE 7: Post: 4:08 PT Grade: A-
Single: 3-Blue Stripe

Forecast: Blue Stripe (TOC=7/5; ML=5/2) was a thoroughly convincing winner of the Santa Margarita S.-G1 in late April and actually has trained even better since, so we’re expecting the Argentine-bred mare to come right back and do it again. She has enough tactical speed to stay within range and then can kick home when called upon, and in a race in which the pace projects to be faster than par she should have every chance to blow on by when given here cue. At 5/2 on the morning line, she’s a win play and rolling exotic single.

View Santa Maria Stakes Video Analysis

Notable Workouts:

Lady Mystify (June 11, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00h). Grade: B
Never really asked while finishing with interest through the lane in solo main track drill for P. Eurton, final quarter mile in :25.1. Been on the road but likes this track and seems in good shape.
View Workout Video

Blue Stripe (June 9, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.1h). Grade: A-
Went off slowly (:12.4, :24.4) to the top, then stormed home without being asked, :36 flat and 1:00.1 to the wire before galloping out full of run to the seven furlong pole, up in 1:12.4. Couldn’t have looked better, Santa Margarita win was no fluke.
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Private Mission (June 11, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.3h). Grade: B+
Excellent solo main track drill for S. McCarthy, under a tight hold early (12.1, :24 flat, :35.3 to the top), then continued strongly through the lane without being asked, up in :59.4 before being allowed to gallop out to the seven furlong pole in 1:13.1. Seems to be coming back to her best form based on this drill.
View Workout Video

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RACE 8: Post: 4:38 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 3-Gold Phoenix; 4-Cathkin Peak

Forecast: Trainer Phil D’Amato has two main players in this second-level allowance turf event over nine furlongs and it will be surprising if the winner isn’t one of them. Gold Phoenix (TOC=9/5; ML=5/2), a respectable third in the Whittingham S.-G2 in late April when earning a career top speed figure, tackles an easier group today and seems reasonably solid. Never off the board in five career starts, the Irish-bred gelding doesn’t have a massive turn of foot but should be close throughout and then have every chance from the quarter pole home. Stable mate Cathkin Peak (TOC=3-1; ML=3-1), a strong third in the Hollywood Derby-G1 at Del Mar in November, returns with series of healthy workouts that should have him primed and ready off the bench. A first time Lasix user who has won off a layoff in the past, the Irish-bred 4-year-old can turn it on late and should make his presence felt when the pressure is turned on. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with Gold Phoenix getting a slight nod on top.

Notable Workouts

Gold Phoenix (June 11, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:02.3h TT). Grade: B
Just galloping to the top inside Macadamia (same time), then was asked a bit and was slightly second best to the wire, final quarter in :23.4, decent move for Irish-bred gelding who always has been a bit lazy in the a.m. Ran very well in Whittingham S.-G2 to be a close third, holds that edge, still has second level allowance conditions.
View Workout Video

Cathkin Peak (June 5, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.4h TT). Grade: B+
Inside Amy C (5f, 1:00.3h TT), breaking off in front and holding sway through the lane with plenty left (workmate asked, closed the gap but was second best), final quarter mile in :24.3. Finished third in the Hollywood Derby-G1 at Del Mar last November and appears to be coming back just as well if not better. Has fired fresh in the past and still has second level allowance conditions.
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Planetario (June 2, Santa Anita, 7f, 1:29.2h). Grade: B-
Main track drill, proved best inside Caisson (6f, 1:16.4h), leaving that one in the final furlong while being ridden a bit, splits of :24.3, :49.4 and 1:02.3 on our watches from the half mile pole to the seven furlong pole. Form in Brazil on grass was quite good (probably much better on the lawn) but we’d tend to want to see one first on this circuit for R. Mandella.
View Workout Video

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RACE 9: Post: 5:08 PT Grade:
Single: 8-Pyeong Chang

Forecast: Pyeong Chang (TOC=3/5; ML=5/2) has much in his favor in this extended sprint for restricted (nw-2) $16,000 older claimers. Comfortably drawn outside, the lightly-raced gelding set torrid fractions and paid for it late when nailed on the line in a $25,000 affair last month, but today he won’t have go nearly as fast to be on or near the lead throughout. With a very nice training track breeze to tick him over (see below), he should have no excuses today and represents wagering value at 5/2 on the morning line.
Notable Workouts:

Thirsty Always (June 10, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.4h). Grade: B-
Was niggled at through the lane and came the final half mile in :23 flat and :48.4, fast early but slowing up late. Was hoping for a bit better finish but drill is hard to knock for a moderate claimer.
View Workout Video

Pyeong Chang (June 11, Santa Anita, 4f, :49.3h TT). Grade: B
Easy to the top and then finished nicely through the lane in solo training track drill for J. Mullins, final three furlongs in :12.3 and :36.3. Lightly-raced and has some improvement in him.
View Workout Video

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RACE 10: Post: 5:38 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference: 1-Moody Jim; 5-Liberal

Forecast: Moody Jim (TOC=5/2; ML=3-1) will be the controlling speed if such a strategy is employed (and likely will be), and given a front-running trip from his favorable rail post the J. Mullins-trained gelding should have every chance to wire the field. Fourth behind subsequent Hollywood Gold Cup-G1 winner There Goes Harvard in a similar allowance race last month, the Irish-bred gelding won’t have anything that good to worry about today and shouldn’t miss the opportunity to register his first win since January. A sharp recent training track breeze (see below) tells us he’s spot on. Liberal (TOC=9/2; ML=7/2) is shortened to his much preferred trip (a mile) and is the most dangerous of the closing types. A three-time winner over the Santa Anita turf course, the veteran Irish-bred gelding shows solid recent races, and with a little bit of help up front could be dangerous late.

Notable Workouts:

Moody Jim (June 1, 5f, 1:00.3h TT). Grade: B
Looked solid through the lane in solo training track drill for J. Mullins, splits of :24.4, :37 flat and 1:00.2, quick in the final stages without being asked. Has his speed, might be able to come home better next time based on this drill.
View Workout Video

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RACE 11: Post: 6:13 PT Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference): 3-Absolutely Zero; 2-Pure Fire

Forecast: Absolutely Zero (TOC=9/5; ML=8/5) is a filly tackling the boys in this year’s edition of the Fasig-Tipton Futurity. Not sure why the barn opted for this race rather than the filly division earlier on the program, especially when you consider that her trainer D. O’Neill has the promising Justify colt Tahoma (TOC=10-1; ML=5/2) in this field as well. At any rate, she belongs on top after a visually pleasing debut win by almost two lengths from slightly off the pace while giving clear indication that the farther they go, the better she’ll be. A sharp recent half mile breeze (see below) provides further evidence that the daughter of Nyquist is ready to step forward big time. Stranger danger is provided by the first-timer Pure Fire (TOC=9/2; ML=10-1), a Practical Joke colt that brought $315,000 at the OBS March sale after blasting a quarter mile during the preview session in 21 seconds. The issue with this J. Sadler-trained colt is his inability to leave quickly from the gate (see workout below). If he breaks sharply, he’ll have a strong pace presence and likely will be very competitive, so at 10-1 on the morning line he’s worth including somewhere on your ticket.

Notable Workouts:

Pure Fire (June 6, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.2hg). Grade: B
Broke terribly, rushed up to engage workmate Storming Machine (same time) after the opening furlong and then went nicely without being asked much, splits of :24.4, :36.2, :48.1 and 1:01.3 while slightly best when eased up after five furlongs. Definitely can run but needs to learn how to break. Potentially a real quick type.
View Workout Video

Absolutely Zero (June 11, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.2h TT). Grade: B+
Picked her up at the three furlong pole, did nicely while mostly on her own and finishing with some power, :36.2 on our watches. Daughter of Nyquist has some quality and seems very likely to improve as the distances increase.
View Workout Video

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RACE 12: Post: 6:43 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 9-Minister Shane; 3-Bang for Your Buck; 10-Ntlongerahobby

Forecast: The finale is a mile turf raffle for Cal-bred first-level allowance older horses. Minister Shane (TOC=5-1; ML=4-1) owns numbers that fit nicely with these, and with only seven career starts he has room for improvement that most of the others don’t. This will be his first try around two turns, but based on pedigree and running style he should handle the stretch-out in trip just fine. Bang for Your Buck (TOC=5/2; ML=7/2) is just 1-for-14, but at least his win came over the local lawn and he has finished in the money in four of his five. Possibly best last time out over this course and distance, the B. Heap-trained 5-year-old will be doing his best work late with good racing luck may get up in time. Nolongerahobby (TOC=5-1; ML=20-1) gets the worst of the draw in 10-hole and always has preferred to run second or third (18 times) rather than win, but he may inherit the role as the controlling speed, so at 20-1 on the morning line he’s worth including on a ticket or two as a back-up or a saver.

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